And how it has strengthened our democracy.
When
an astute chess opponent leaves his queen exposed, your instinctive reaction is
to take it. Mindful of his skill, however, you consider that it may be a deliberate
sacrifice to achieve check-mate a few moves later. But you take it anyway, and
then discover that your opponent simply made a stupid blunder.
I
cannot think of a more appropriate analogy for President Zuma’s sacking Nhlanhla Nene
as Minister of Finance and then having to backtrack to reappoint Pravin Gordhan.
The brazenness, manner and timing of the announcement, and the ensuing
flip-flop, all point to the unthinkable: the possibility of a simple, stupid
blunder – perhaps triggered by a hissy fit after Nene’s doomsday address to
cabinet a few hours earlier. While tantrums can sometimes reveal the monster
within, in itself it is also a disturbing reflection of power-blindness, one
that does not fully realise its own limitations.
We
have clearly paid a huge price for this folly and in the weeks ahead will
continue to do so. It’s not necessary to repeat the doomsday responses from a
large body of respected commentators, analysts and economists, including some
of the nebulous calculations of the cost. They are all valid, but at the same
time miss the most important point of all: the drawing of a solid line in the
sand to show the world that democracy is very much alive and well in this
country. The disturbing image of an unstoppable autocrat hell-bent on power-mongering
and political intrigue for self-gain has been substantially countered if not
destroyed.
In
time that should become the overriding message to counter the immediate
concerns about having an unstable, unpredictable and confused captain at the
ship. Without doubt his wings have been severely clipped. Only time will tell
whether this bird of prey can fly again. I somehow doubt it.
At
the very least that solid line in the sand will remain as a reminder, not only
for the captain, but his lieutenants and inner circle as well. It stands
clearly drawn. Cross it at your peril. It is formed by invincible forces that
stand outside conventional democratic processes but are crucial to them.
The
first is the global markets. They can be criticised for being bi-polar, fickle,
impetuous and even emotional. But no country can ignore them, especially not
one with an open economy such as South Africa. They will wreak havoc with your
domestic well-being; consumer prices, jobs, your ability to borrow money, and
the price you pay for your debt.
Current
world markets may be fickle, but that very fickleness is why a country has to
gain their trust and their favour. In a perverted way, and with the hefty
“klap” we have been given these past few days, there is a glimmer of hope that
in time we can do just that. For market trust is also largely based on a
perception of checks and balances in political decision making. The last few
days have shown that we do have that, certainly the first such sign in a very
long time since Zuma took the helm.
Another
relatively newcomer to power curtailment are the social media. The power of a
free conventional media has been known for some time, but in my view and life
experience is often overrated. But not so the social media. While admittedly they
are relatively new in my life, I have never quite experienced such a galvanised
expression of anger and outrage at a government pronouncement: vehement, inflammatory,
perhaps even hysterical and defamatory. We have been given a taste of those
forces that triggered the Arab Spring, and the ability to effect regime change.
Not even the most megalomaniacal mind can ignore that, despite its still rather
limited reach in this country.
These
two forces: markets and media stand on a rock solid foundation in this country
of a vigilant citizenry, as often demonstrated in ongoing street protests and
elsewhere; powerful institutions, including Chapter 9 bodies and an active NGO
sector; a strong and independent judiciary; an overriding constitution, and a
still solid private sector that may have become muted by global economic
conditions but that still has to be seriously wooed to contribute to the
welfare of South Africans.
Certainly,
President Zuma has made serious inroads into all of these. But ironically one
could also argue the opposite: that we
should be celebrating Zuma. Not lamenting him. He has single-handedly stopped
the growth of a political party that was becoming far too dominant and
autocratic. He has created the strongest, albeit disjointed, opposition since
1994. He has put the mighty ANC on the defensive, forcing it to defend its
behaviour rather than its promises; personalities rather than principles. He
has fragmented not only his party, but its alliances, and has triggered the
birth of another powerful political player in the form of the EFF. This will no
doubt become evident in next year’s local elections.
The
lessons of his tarnished legacy are also valuable. Having a moral compass is
not only a question of sound values; it is also a matter of self-preservation. One
cannot rule effectively and sustainably on patronage, fear and seduction.
Sustainable power is based on having the interests of followers at heart. Great leaders are always seen as servants first. We
have also seen that panic is seldom productive; outrage and anger is much more effective.
On
balance it has been a good week politically. Far from our democracy being
weakened, it has been strengthened. In time, hopefully the credit agencies and
markets will come to see that.